Analisis Nowcasting-Forecasting Sektor Ekonomi Unggulan- Potensial dan Kontribusinya Terhadap Perekonomian Regional Provinsi Jawa Barat

Abstract

This study has three main objectives, namely: (i) analyzing the leading and potential economic sectors in the period 2010 to 2024, (ii) analyzing the sectoral economic influence, inflation effects, and the Covid-19 crisis on the regional economic growth of West Java, and (iii) conducting nowcasting and forecasting analysis of the regional economy of West Java in the next few periods. This study uses secondary data with the dynamic location-quotient (DLQ) analysis method, growth ratio model (MRP), Klassen typology, and overlay as well as econometric analysis methods, namely the error correction model (ECM), multivariate regression, mixed data sampling (MIDAS) Auto/Gets, and probability forecasting. This study found that all economic sectors in West Java are potential economic sectors except for the mining and quarrying sector and the electricity and gas procurement sector. Furthermore, this study also found that the key sectors that contributed greatly to increasing the regional economic growth of West Java were mainly the manufacturing industry and wholesale and retail trade in short-run and long-run. The Covid-19 crisis variable also had a negative effect on the economic growth of West Java. Based on the results of nowcasting-forecasting, it is estimated that economic growth in the third quarter and fourth quarter of 2024 will be 5.42% and 5.44%, if supported by stable and controlled macroeconomic factors and external problem factors such as the negative impact of global economic uncertainty can be overcome. The results of this study are expected to be used as material for formulating regional economic policies in strengthening the stability and economic growth of the province of West Java.